E-Boy
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.78
36.59 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $21.40 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.51%
2,471 openings, odds method
Variance
37.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 69
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,483 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 500 | $2,372 3,650 gems | 22.2% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $1,798 2,766 gems | 21.0% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $437 673 gems | 20.4% | 22 | 24.8 | 0.89× |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 39 | $146 225 gems | 17.4% | 61 | 63.3 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $26.39 40.6 gems | 6.2% | 108 | 124.2 | 0.87× |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 13 | $17.78 27.36 gems | 6.2% | 177 | 186.2 | 0.95× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $3.82 5.88 gems | 2.7% | 398 | 372.5 | 1.07× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.50 3.85 gems | 2.3% | 519 | 496.6 | 1.05× |
| SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.5% | $1.05 1.61 gems | 1.0% | 514 | 509.0 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Flexsticker · blue | 28.0% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 0.5% | 676 | 695.2 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.78 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.2%classified 0.3%covert 1.0%rare 2.5%mil spec 5.0%pink 7.5%Legendary 15.0%restricted 20.0%blue 48.5%best hit $2,372 (99.75x)