Eclipse
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8,901.53
13,695 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8,011.30 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.02%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 30.0% | $26.2K 40,275 gems | 98.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 15.0% | $1,022 1,572 gems | 1.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red | 15.0% | $23.07 35.49 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.85 5.93 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.59 3.99 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.79 1.22 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · ExtraordinaryChuck$8,90213,695 gems$1,0221,572 gems0.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$8,90213,695 gems$26.2K40,275 gems2.94x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8,902 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%Extraordinary 15.0%red 15.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $26.2K (2.94x)