Edge Simulator
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$66.59
102 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $59.93 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.46%
676 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 688 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,101 1,694 gems | 9.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $465 715 gems | 11.6% | 4 | 10.3 | 0.39× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 33 | $272 418 gems | 13.6% | 17 | 20.6 | 0.82× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $233 358 gems | 19.4% | 30 | 34.4 | 0.87× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $108 166 gems | 18.0% | 80 | 68.8 | 1.16× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $64.57 99.34 gems | 10.8% | 62 | 68.8 | 0.90× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $40.62 62.49 gems | 6.8% | 79 | 68.8 | 1.15× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $23.61 36.33 gems | 3.9% | 69 | 68.8 | 1.00× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $12.48 19.2 gems | 5.2% | 178 | 172.0 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $3.46 5.32 gems | 1.4% | 167 | 172.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3CodeWILDCS 2K LB$66.59102 gems$272418 gems4.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $66.59 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.5%extraordinary 16.5%Ancient 10.0%pink 50.0%best hit $1,101 (16.53x)