Electric Profit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.82
27.41 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.03 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.57%
3,203 openings, odds method
Variance
12.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,241 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $439 675 gems | 54.8% | 62 | 64.8 | 0.96× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $75.15 116 gems | 14.1% | 102 | 97.2 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $51.76 79.63 gems | 16.1% | 160 | 162.0 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $13.59 20.91 gems | 8.5% | 305 | 324.1 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.75 7.31 gems | 5.9% | 685 | 648.2 | 1.06× |
| P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 60.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.6% | 1,927 | 1944.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrialKick/HarryJZ$17.8227.41 gems$0.170.26 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $17.82 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%mil spec 13.0%classified 5.0%restricted 20.0%industrial 60.0%best hit —