Elixir
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,689.19
2,599 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,520.26 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.09%
168 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 12.0% | $12.6K 19,400 gems | 99.5% | 15 | 20.2 | 0.74× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $23.97 36.87 gems | 0.2% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $17.20 26.46 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $7.58 11.66 gems | 0.1% | 24 | 20.2 | 1.19× |
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $5.32 8.19 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 20.2 | 1.49× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 18.0% | $2.58 3.97 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 30.2 | 0.99× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 22.0% | $0.57 0.88 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireChuck$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirejurassicpeek$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,6892,599 gems$12.6K19,400 gems7.47x
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classifiedHydrarewards.com$1,6892,599 gems$7.5811.66 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,689 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.0%classified 48.0%mil spec 40.0%best hit $12.6K (7.47x)