Emerald Dream
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.34
35.9 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.00 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.56%
1,623 openings, odds method
Variance
23.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,645 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 10,000 | $7,132 10,972 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 1,111 | $2,261 3,478 gems | 9.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 53 | $394 606 gems | 35.7% | 28 | 31.3 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $108 167 gems | 10.3% | 38 | 32.9 | 1.16× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $20.38 31.35 gems | 9.7% | 151 | 164.5 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $19.55 30.08 gems | 11.2% | 186 | 197.4 | 0.94× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 27.0% | $6.77 10.42 gems | 8.7% | 460 | 444.1 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 47.0% | $5.06 7.79 gems | 11.3% | 781 | 773.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSupremeTurk$23.3435.9 gems$5.067.79 gems0.22x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.34 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.1%Covert 1.9%restricted 29.0%covert 10.0%classified 12.0%Mythical 47.0%best hit $2,261 (96.89x)