Empire Builder
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.12
58.64 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.30 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.03%
89 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 89 openings and 26.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $92.94 143 gems | 40.6% | 19 | 13.3 | 1.42× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $60.39 92.9 gems | 26.4% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.82× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $47.18 72.59 gems | 20.6% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $21.12 32.49 gems | 3.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.12× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $16.57 25.49 gems | 2.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Emperor (Foil)sticker · pink | 45.0% | $5.21 8.01 gems | 6.8% | 35 | 40.1 | 0.87× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $38.12 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%restricted 5.0%pink 45.0%best hit —