Encapsulated
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,119.69
1,723 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,007.71 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.37%
189 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 189 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers - Sticker Capsulecontainer | 1 in 50 | $18.4K 28,249 gems | 36.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 33 | $6,208 9,550 gems | 18.5% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $2,116 3,256 gems | 14.7% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $1,756 2,702 gems | 12.2% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $872 1,342 gems | 6.1% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $559 860 gems | 3.9% | 21 | 13.2 | 1.59× |
| Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $436 670 gems | 3.0% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | HellRaisers | Katowice 2014sticker · violet | 1 in 14 | $264 406 gems | 1.8% | 17 | 13.2 | 1.28× |
| Sticker | compLexity Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 14 | $248 382 gems | 1.7% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | shroud (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · Mythical | 46.0% | $36.06 55.48 gems | 1.6% | 78 | 86.9 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,1201,723 gems$6,2089,550 gems5.54x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,1201,723 gems$6,2089,550 gems5.54x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,1201,723 gems$6,2089,550 gems5.54x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,1201,723 gems$6,2089,550 gems5.54x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,1201,723 gems$6,2089,550 gems5.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,120 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 2.0%remarkable 3.0%high 42.0%violet 7.0%Mythical 46.0%best hit $18.4K (16.40x)