Enchanted
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.44
2.22 gems
Advertised RTP
89.63%
EV $1.29 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.93%
24.7K openings, odds method
Variance
23.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.91% – 104.96%, 24,703 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedJ***g$1.442.22 gems$179275 gems123.8x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedJ***g$1.442.22 gems$179275 gems123.8x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedn1n3w$1.442.22 gems$179275 gems123.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.44 | 89.63% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 30.3%mil spec 40.2%classified 0.3%industrial 3.3%#777777 6.0%Pistols 10.0%milspec 10.0%best hit $179 (123.8x)