Price
$61.18
94.12 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $55.06 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.09%
979 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 985 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus {Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 40 | $1,260 1,939 gems | 57.2% | 19 | 24.6 | 0.77× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 22 | $302 465 gems | 24.7% | 52 | 44.3 | 1.17× |
| Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $72.96 112 gems | 9.3% | 62 | 69.0 | 0.90× |
| Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $18.41 28.32 gems | 3.3% | 94 | 98.5 | 0.95× |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.06 15.47 gems | 1.8% | 99 | 98.5 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $8.63 13.28 gems | 2.4% | 124 | 147.8 | 0.84× |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 21.0% | $1.98 3.05 gems | 0.8% | 233 | 206.8 | 1.13× |
| Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.94 1.44 gems | 0.5% | 302 | 295.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus {Factory New)Souvenir · weaponeverythingroi$61.1894.12 gems$1,2601,939 gems20.60x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus {Factory New)Souvenir · weaponbuffe$61.1894.12 gems$1,2601,939 gems20.60x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus {Factory New)Souvenir · weaponHydrarewards.com$61.1894.12 gems$1,2601,939 gems20.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$61.1894.12 gems$72.96112 gems1.19x
Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$61.1894.12 gems$72.96112 gems1.19x
Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$61.1894.12 gems$18.4128.32 gems0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $61.18 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 2.5%extraordinary 4.5%classified 17.0%Restricted 10.0%Ancient 15.0%covert 21.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $1,260 (20.60x)