Entropy Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$245.32
377 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $220.78 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.67%
264 openings, odds method
Variance
25.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 268 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Happy (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker | 1 in 400 | $23.3K 35,900 gems | 26.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 133 | $3,065 4,716 gems | 10.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 67 | $1,953 3,005 gems | 13.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $1,332 2,050 gems | 9.1% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.74× |
| AWP | CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,073 1,651 gems | 9.7% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $620 953 gems | 5.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $303 466 gems | 2.7% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.49× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $123 189 gems | 11.2% | 55 | 53.6 | 1.03× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified | 70.0% | $36.62 56.34 gems | 11.6% | 184 | 187.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$245377 gems$1,9533,005 gems7.96x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$245377 gems$1,9533,005 gems7.96x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$245377 gems$1,9533,005 gems7.96x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $245 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.3%Extraordinary 0.8%covert 7.0%red 2.0%pink 20.0%classified 70.0%best hit $23.3K (95.12x)