Entry Frag
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$98.77
152 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $88.89 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.51%
1,876 openings, odds method
Variance
33.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,912 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryKick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards$98.77152 gems$7,58311,667 gems76.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $98.77 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%covert 7.5%classified 10.0%mil spec 30.0%Legendary 12.0%industrial 40.0%best hit $7,583 (76.78x)