error-bigpulls-6percent

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.25
5 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
88.90%
1,631 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
948 openings · below min
7 days
91.23%±25.001,535 openings
30 days
88.90%±23.741,631 openings
since tracking started
88.90%±23.741,631 openings
62.5%94.0%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h94894.05%±30.8—sample
7d1,53591.23%±25.0—sample
30d1,63188.90%±23.7—sample
All1,63188.90%±23.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonetknife · covert$3.255 gems$278427 gems85.49x
★ Bayonetknife · covert$3.255 gems$278427 gems85.49x

Latest dropsnewest first

AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
Patch | Metal Silver Demonpatch · Exotic$3.255 gems$21.5433.14 gems6.63x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$3.255 gems$0.030.05 gems0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $278 (85.49x)