Exciled
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.07
0.11 gems
Advertised RTP
85.91%
EV $0.06 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.53%
49.1K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 82.5% | 7,503 | 7524.4 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 7.9% | 12,480 | 12540.6 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 6.3% | 15,185 | 15048.7 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 3.2% | 14,995 | 15049.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.07 | 85.91% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 15.0%Mil Spec 25.0%Consumer 30.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —