Expanding Domain
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,165.11
3,331 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,948.58 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.87%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $29.1K 44,727 gems | 37.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base | 1 in 40 | $17.6K 27,018 gems | 22.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $6,637 10,210 gems | 17.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 10.0% | $2,653 4,081 gems | 13.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $1,394 2,144 gems | 7.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $293 451 gems | 1.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $114 175 gems | 0.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $48.70 74.92 gems | 0.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Ragesticker · blue | 40.0% | $1.79 2.76 gems | 0.0% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,1653,331 gems$6,63710,210 gems3.07x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableChuck$2,1653,331 gems$6,63710,210 gems3.07x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,1653,331 gems$2,6534,081 gems1.23x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,1653,331 gems$2,6534,081 gems1.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,1653,331 gems$48.7074.92 gems0.02x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,1653,331 gems$2,6534,081 gems1.23x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,1653,331 gems$6,63710,210 gems3.07x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,1653,331 gems$2,6534,081 gems1.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2,165 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.5%base 2.5%remarkable 5.0%Covert 10.0%legendary 10.0%covert knife 10.0%blue 40.0%best hit $17.6K (8.11x)