Experiment
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$221.27
340 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $199.14 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.51%
499 openings, odds method
Variance
15.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 499 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 50 | $6,193 9,528 gems | 62.2% | 15 | 10.0 | 1.50× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $468 720 gems | 9.4% | 7 | 20.0 | 0.35× |
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $289 445 gems | 8.7% | 30 | 29.9 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon | 16.0% | $72.24 111 gems | 5.8% | 65 | 79.8 | 0.81× |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 32.0% | $45.22 69.57 gems | 7.3% | 159 | 159.7 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 32.0% | $40.94 62.99 gems | 6.6% | 182 | 159.7 | 1.14× |
| SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 12 | $1.17 1.8 gems | 0.0% | 41 | 39.9 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableGetDGN.com | Code: DGN$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1010010101$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkabletrickytrash$221340 gems$6,1939,528 gems27.99x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$221340 gems$468720 gems2.12x
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$221340 gems$289445 gems1.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $221 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 2.0%covert 4.0%restricted 6.0%other 16.0%industrial 64.0%Uncommon 8.0%best hit $6,193 (27.99x)