Explorer
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,090.28
1,677 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $981.25 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.48%
146 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 45.5% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $6,912 10,633 gems | 35.2% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,437 2,211 gems | 14.6% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $226 347 gems | 2.3% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $75.93 117 gems | 1.2% | 12 | 21.9 | 0.55× |
| AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $24.89 38.29 gems | 0.4% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $23.89 36.75 gems | 0.5% | 33 | 29.2 | 1.13× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red | 20.0% | $13.44 20.68 gems | 0.3% | 39 | 29.2 | 1.34× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,090 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%legendary 5.0%classified 25.0%Restricted 20.0%red 20.0%best hit $8,936 (8.20x)