Fact or Cap
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$313.64
483 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $282.27 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.91%
289 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 40.0% | $665 1,024 gems | 94.3% | 114 | 115.6 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $39.01 60.02 gems | 4.1% | 89 | 86.7 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $14.67 22.57 gems | 1.6% | 86 | 86.7 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $314 | 90.00% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 100.0%best hit $665 (2.12x)