Factory
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$57.71
88.78 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $51.93 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.61%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 79 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $579 892 gems | 33.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.11× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $205 315 gems | 27.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $81.22 125 gems | 15.6% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.51× |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $65.04 100 gems | 18.8% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $29.53 45.43 gems | 1.1% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $13.86 21.33 gems | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| Nova | Interlock (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $5.93 9.13 gems | 1.7% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 15.0% | $2.65 4.07 gems | 0.8% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 0.3% | 17 | 11.8 | 1.43× |
| FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 16.0% | $0.23 0.35 gems | 0.1% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$57.7188.78 gems$579892 gems10.04x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertcolin$57.7188.78 gems$579892 gems10.04x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertVaderHighOnMilk$57.7188.78 gems$579892 gems10.04x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$57.7188.78 gems$579892 gems10.04x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$57.7188.78 gems$579892 gems10.04x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$57.7188.78 gems$2.654.07 gems0.05x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$57.7188.78 gems$2.654.07 gems0.05x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$57.7188.78 gems$2.654.07 gems0.05x
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$57.7188.78 gems$13.8621.33 gems0.24x
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$57.7188.78 gems$205315 gems3.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $57.71 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%extraordinary 7.0%restricted 29.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 31.0%#8847ff 15.0%best hit $579 (10.04x)