Faded
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.59
161 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $94.13 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.28%
172 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $845 1,300 gems | 9.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 50 | $832 1,280 gems | 17.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $642 988 gems | 13.6% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $188 290 gems | 30.0% | 19 | 25.8 | 0.74× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 20.0% | $124 192 gems | 26.4% | 40 | 34.4 | 1.16× |
| MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $12.30 18.92 gems | 2.6% | 35 | 34.4 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $2.52 3.87 gems | 0.5% | 34 | 34.4 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.1% | 33 | 34.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $105 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 1.0%epic 2.0%covert 42.0%classified 35.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit $845 (8.08x)