Falchion Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.46
3.79 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $2.22 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.50%
12.3K openings, odds method
Variance
21.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knifeMUSTASCHEN$2.463.79 gems$219337 gems88.82x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2.46 | 89.93% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.7%other 0.0%pink 1.1%classified 2.1%Rare 13.3%violet 3.2%restricted 12.8%mil spec 53.3%#4b69ff 13.3%best hit $514 (208.4x)