False Prophet
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$188.05
289 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $169.24 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.21%
62 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 62 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 40 | $1,827 2,810 gems | 27.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.86× |
| AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,105 1,700 gems | 16.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 20 | $474 729 gems | 14.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $267 411 gems | 15.8% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.40× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.0% | $101 156 gems | 9.0% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 20.0% | $60.48 93.05 gems | 7.1% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 20.0% | $43.95 67.61 gems | 5.2% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 25.0% | $37.78 58.13 gems | 5.6% | 22 | 21.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponhttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$188289 gems$1,8272,810 gems9.71x
Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon•Cřytox•$188289 gems$1,8272,810 gems9.71x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponhttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$188289 gems$1,8272,810 gems9.71x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $188 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 2.5%covert 92.5%#eb4b4b 5.0%best hit $1,827 (9.71x)