Fame or Fortune
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$106.83
164 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $96.15 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.53%
110 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $206 316 gems | 53.4% | 26 | 27.5 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 25.0% | $173 266 gems | 44.9% | 29 | 27.5 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | fame (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker · Extraordinary | 25.0% | $4.02 6.18 gems | 1.0% | 24 | 27.5 | 0.87× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $2.24 3.45 gems | 0.6% | 31 | 27.5 | 1.13× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $107 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%Classified 25.0%Extraordinary 25.0%restricted 25.0%best hit —