Farmers Arsenal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.03
4.66 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $2.73 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.49%
2,051 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,067 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 1,000 | $44.26 68.09 gems | 1.6% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 29.9% | $4.76 7.33 gems | 52.3% | 599 | 618.0 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 30.0% | $3.94 6.06 gems | 43.4% | 627 | 620.1 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Red Tire (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $0.70 1.07 gems | 1.3% | 103 | 103.3 | 1.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.7% | 234 | 206.7 | 1.13× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.6% | 178 | 206.7 | 0.86× |
| MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9 | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.1% | 323 | 310.1 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeKarsiK$3.034.66 gems$0.200.31 gems0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.03 | 89.97% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.1%Restricted 29.9%Legendary 30.0%industrial 5.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%Uncommon 10.0%#B0C3D9 15.0%best hit —