Festive Fragfest
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.44
32.99 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.30 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.17%
4,627 openings, odds method
Variance
54.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,724 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $2,197 3,380 gems | 56.9% | 30 | 23.6 | 1.27× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $309 476 gems | 16.0% | 47 | 47.2 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $121 186 gems | 6.3% | 46 | 47.2 | 0.97× |
| FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $56.52 86.96 gems | 2.9% | 50 | 47.2 | 1.06× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $23.21 35.7 gems | 1.2% | 51 | 47.2 | 1.08× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 45.5% | $6.43 9.89 gems | 15.2% | 2,115 | 2149.4 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9 | 50.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 1.5% | 2,385 | 2362.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.44 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 46.0%mil spec 1.0%covert 2.0%red 1.0%#5e98d9 50.0%best hit $2,197 (102.5x)