Fever Case!
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.94
4.53 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $2.65 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.05%
6,091 openings, odds method
Variance
58.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 222
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,128 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knifeNasenbär Sympathisant 67$2.944.53 gems$9871,518 gems335.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryBoogy95 #clashgg$2.944.53 gems$14.4922.29 gems4.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.94 | 89.99% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%gold 0.1%legendary 0.0%epic 0.0%rare 1.1%Ancient 0.3%Immortal 0.0%sunny 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%pink 1.1%Legendary 1.1%red 0.3%Mythical 9.6%restricted 3.2%uncommon 3.2%#4b69ff 11.4%blue 22.8%Rare 34.3%milspec 11.4%best hit $987 (335.1x)