Fight or Flight
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.15
1.77 gems
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $1.03 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.69%
34K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $16.97 26.1 gems | 16.5% | 341 | 349.0 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $9.24 14.21 gems | 17.9% | 717 | 698.1 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $6.25 9.62 gems | 12.1% | 696 | 698.1 | 1.00× |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $3.09 4.75 gems | 15.0% | 1,683 | 1745.2 | 0.96× |
| P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $2.75 4.23 gems | 26.7% | 3,459 | 3490.4 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.89 1.37 gems | 8.6% | 3,476 | 3490.4 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 70.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 3.1% | 24,532 | 24432.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.15 | 89.50% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 6.0%industrial 2.0%restricted 12.0%milspec 10.0%blue 70.0%best hit —