Final Four
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.82
33.57 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.64 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.92%
3,376 openings, odds method
Variance
24.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,392 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.82 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.0%covert 1.0%rare 12.0%Classified 12.0%violet 12.0%Mythical 12.0%#4b69ff 12.0%uncommon 18.0%#b0c3d9 18.0%best hit $1,007 (46.14x)