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Fire and Ice

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$69.20
106 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $62.28 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.92%
270 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
100.68%±14.43261 openings
30 days
98.92%±14.18270 openings
since tracking started
98.92%±14.18270 openings
34.5%102.5%170.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12102.58%±67.3—odds
7d261100.68%±14.4+1.5σodds
30d27098.92%±14.2+1.2σodds
All27098.92%±14.2+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1,774 2,729 gems2.8%10.3—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Immortal1 in 20$214 329 gems16.8%1413.21.06×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 20$150 231 gems12.0%1713.51.26×
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted15.0%$131 201 gems31.4%3740.50.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified15.0%$79.87 123 gems19.2%3940.50.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$74.80 115 gems12.0%3127.01.15×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$24.06 37.01 gems3.9%2827.01.04×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF10.0%$7.21 11.09 gems1.2%1927.00.70×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade10.0%$2.13 3.28 gems0.3%2127.00.78×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare10.0%$0.98 1.5 gems0.2%3227.01.19×
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec10.0%$0.44 0.67 gems0.1%3127.01.15×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertKotix$69.20106 gems$1,7742,729 gems25.64x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$69.20106 gems$0.981.5 gems0.01x
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$69.20106 gems$131201 gems1.89x
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$69.20106 gems$150231 gems2.17x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$69.20106 gems$0.981.5 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$69.20106 gems$0.440.67 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$69.20106 gems$74.80115 gems1.08x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$69.20106 gems$2.133.28 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$69.20106 gems$0.981.5 gems0.01x
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$69.20106 gems$131201 gems1.89x
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$69.20106 gems$150231 gems2.17x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$69.2090.00%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%Immortal 4.9%Ancient 5.0%restricted 15.0%classified 35.0%#4B69FF 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Rare 10.0%milspec 10.0%best hit $1,774 (25.64x)