Fire Fighter

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$177.17

273 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $159.45 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

111.15%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

48 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

7.0%107.3%207.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 9.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	107.18%±99.8	—	odds
7d	48	111.15%±35.3	—	odds
30d	48	111.15%±35.3	—	odds
All	48	111.15%±35.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$850 1,308 gems	21.3%	3	1.9	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$602 926 gems	22.7%	3	2.9	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 11	$375 577 gems	21.2%	7	4.3	1.62×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 11	$298 458 gems	16.8%	4	4.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	11.0%	$146 224 gems	10.1%	5	5.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	11.0%	$65.14 100 gems	4.5%	5	5.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	20.0%	$24.08 37.05 gems	3.0%	8	9.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	30.0%	$2.46 3.78 gems	0.5%	13	14.4	0.90×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.