Flame Thrower
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.98
29.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $17.08 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.98%
2,142 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,224 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $123 189 gems | 71.9% | 211 | 222.4 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $39.44 60.68 gems | 23.1% | 227 | 222.4 | 1.02× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $10.95 16.84 gems | 3.2% | 117 | 111.2 | 1.05× |
| XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $1.07 1.64 gems | 0.3% | 122 | 111.2 | 1.10× |
| M249 | Magma (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $0.60 0.92 gems | 1.2% | 758 | 778.4 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 35.0% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.3% | 789 | 778.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.98 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 10.0%classified 10.0%covert 5.0%Mythical 5.0%mil spec 35.0%milspec 35.0%best hit —