Flip or Flop
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.75
59.62 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $34.87 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.11%
522 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 522 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double or Nothingother | 10.0% | $74.56 115 gems | 21.4% | 49 | 52.2 | 0.94× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $73.69 113 gems | 21.1% | 47 | 52.2 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $71.50 110 gems | 20.5% | 45 | 52.2 | 0.86× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $67.83 104 gems | 19.5% | 51 | 52.2 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $60.63 93.28 gems | 17.4% | 56 | 52.2 | 1.07× |
| Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $0.22 0.34 gems | 0.1% | 53 | 52.2 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Acid Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9 | 10.0% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.0% | 45 | 52.2 | 0.86× |
| P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.07 0.1 gems | 0.0% | 55 | 52.2 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.0% | 70 | 52.2 | 1.34× |
| MP7 | Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff | 10.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.0% | 51 | 52.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.7559.62 gems$71.50110 gems1.85x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $38.75 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 10.0%sunny 10.0%covert 10.0%extraordinary 10.0%Covert 10.0%violet 10.0%#5e98d9 10.0%blue 10.0%milspec 10.0%#87c7ff 10.0%best hit —