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Forged

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$26.42
40.65 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $23.78 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.16%
1,435 openings, odds method
Variance
16.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
152 openings · below min
7 days
105.20%±25.53993 openings
30 days
100.16%±21.241,435 openings
since tracking started
100.16%±21.241,435 openings
-0.5%65.5%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15259.50%±65.3—odds
7d993105.20%±25.5+1.2σodds
30d1,435100.16%±21.2+0.9σodds
All1,435100.16%±21.2+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,443 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 200$1,365 2,100 gems28.7%97.21.25×
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$309 475 gems13.0%1914.41.32×
★ Skeleton Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · rare1 in 100$248 381 gems10.4%1114.40.76×
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$243 374 gems10.2%1814.41.25×
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 100$149 230 gems6.3%1014.40.69×
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 67$129 199 gems8.2%2621.61.20×
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 67$109 168 gems6.9%2021.60.92×
★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 40$87.30 134 gems9.2%3736.11.03×
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade10.0%$8.09 12.44 gems3.4%145144.31.00×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted25.0%$2.16 3.33 gems2.3%376360.81.04×
P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$1.29 1.99 gems1.4%342360.80.95×
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial30.0%$0.07 0.11 gems0.1%430432.90.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · goldKITCHEN$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · goldCookiez$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$26.4240.65 gems$1,3652,100 gems51.66x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$26.4240.65 gems$8.0912.44 gems0.31x
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$26.4240.65 gems$0.070.11 gems0.00x
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted$26.4240.65 gems$2.163.33 gems0.08x
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$26.4240.65 gems$8.0912.44 gems0.31x
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$26.4240.65 gems$243374 gems9.20x
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$26.4240.65 gems$0.070.11 gems0.00x
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$26.4240.65 gems$8.0912.44 gems0.31x
P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$26.4240.65 gems$1.291.99 gems0.05x
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted$26.4240.65 gems$2.163.33 gems0.08x
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$26.4240.65 gems$0.070.11 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$26.4289.98%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.5%covert 7.0%rare 1.0%covert knife 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%restricted 25.0%mil spec 25.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $1,365 (51.66x)