Fort Knox
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,109.19
7,860 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4,598.23 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice (2014)other | 10.0% | $15.7K 24,100 gems | 34.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $8,936 13,748 gems | 58.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 20 | $4,188 6,443 gems | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,313 3,559 gems | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $182 280 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $74.69 115 gems | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $2.49 3.83 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5,109 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 10.0%covert 55.0%contraband 5.0%restricted 10.0%milspec 20.0%