Fortune
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$532.84
820 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $479.55 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.07%
502 openings, odds method
Variance
24.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 508 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 333 | $34.1K 52,490 gems | 21.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 333 | $26K 40,000 gems | 16.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 250 | $18.4K 28,238 gems | 15.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $2,697 4,149 gems | 11.2% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.28× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,730 2,662 gems | 7.2% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 50 | $1,217 1,873 gems | 5.1% | 15 | 10.2 | 1.48× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 50 | $793 1,220 gems | 3.3% | 7 | 10.2 | 0.69× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $216 333 gems | 13.5% | 130 | 152.4 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $65.64 101 gems | 4.1% | 151 | 152.4 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 31.0% | $40.22 61.87 gems | 2.6% | 178 | 157.5 | 1.13× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableOla$533820 gems$18.4K28,238 gems34.45x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$533820 gems$18.4K28,238 gems34.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $533 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%remarkable 0.7%covert 95.0%gold 4.0%best hit $34.1K (64.03x)