from worm to fly

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$13.03
20.05 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
956.72%
4 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
4 openings · below min
30 days
4 openings · below min
since tracking started
4 openings · below min
-0.5%1411.8%2824.0%

Small sample. 4 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4956.72%±1866.7—sample
7d4956.72%±1866.7—sample
30d4956.72%±1866.7—sample
All4956.72%±1866.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold$13.0320.05 gems$497765 gems38.14x
M249 | Deep Relief (Factory New)weapon · 1$13.0320.05 gems$0.560.86 gems0.04x
M249 | Deep Relief (Factory New)weapon · 1$13.0320.05 gems$0.560.86 gems0.04x
M249 | Deep Relief (Factory New)weapon · 1Dominik$13.0320.05 gems$0.560.86 gems0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —