FrostFire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.95
98.38 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $57.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.63%
3,659 openings, odds method
Variance
45.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,709 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 2,000 | $10.3K 15,909 gems | 9.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 1,000 | $6,574 10,114 gems | 11.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $4,746 7,301 gems | 20.6% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $2,313 3,559 gems | 20.1% | 25 | 18.5 | 1.35× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $735 1,131 gems | 12.8% | 40 | 37.1 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $559 860 gems | 9.7% | 50 | 37.1 | 1.35× |
| AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $280 431 gems | 9.7% | 75 | 74.2 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red | 10.0% | $17.28 26.59 gems | 3.0% | 392 | 370.9 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 85.1% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 3.7% | 3,112 | 3156.4 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$63.9598.38 gems$10.3K15,909 gems161.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$63.9598.38 gems$10.3K15,909 gems161.7x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$63.9598.38 gems$6,57410,114 gems102.8x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireDgg1$63.9598.38 gems$6,57410,114 gems102.8x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$63.9598.38 gems$6,57410,114 gems102.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $63.95 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%classified 0.5%restricted 1.0%Ancient 2.0%red 10.0%remarkable 85.1%best hit $10.3K (161.7x)