Fuck your birthday N

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$65.00
100 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
30.53%
78 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
30 openings · below min
7 days
72 openings · below min
30 days
78 openings · below min
since tracking started
78 openings · below min
-0.5%34.5%69.5%

Small sample. 78 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3024.91%±36.2—sample
7d7233.04%±35.9—sample
30d7830.53%±33.2—sample
All7830.53%±33.2—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband$65.00100 gems$7151,100 gems11.00x

Latest dropsnewest first

MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$65.00100 gems$336516 gems5.16x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$65.00100 gems$0.250.38 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $715 (11.00x)