FUEGO

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$114.47

176 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $103.02 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.95%

274 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

94.80%±30.40227 openings

30 days

92.95%±27.67274 openings

since tracking started

92.95%±27.67274 openings

-0.5%62.8%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	22.12%±93.5	—	odds
7d	227	94.80%±30.4	+0.3σ	odds
30d	274	92.95%±27.7	+0.2σ	odds
All	274	92.95%±27.7	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$1,475 2,269 gems	42.9%	5	8.4	0.60×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$543 835 gems	15.8%	16	8.4	1.90×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$342 526 gems	10.0%	13	8.4	1.55×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$298 459 gems	8.7%	11	8.4	1.31×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$180 277 gems	5.2%	4	8.4	0.48×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$75.67 116 gems	7.3%	22	28.0	0.79×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$51.98 79.97 gems	5.0%	35	28.0	1.25×
MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.0%	$28.29 43.52 gems	2.7%	27	28.0	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	10.0%	$14.94 22.99 gems	1.5%	28	28.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$4.20 6.46 gems	0.4%	22	28.0	0.79×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$2.07 3.18 gems	0.3%	35	42.0	0.83×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.39 0.6 gems	0.1%	62	56.0	1.11×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$114176 gems$1,4752,269 gems12.88x1d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covertjurassicpeek$114176 gems$1,4752,269 gems12.88x2d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$114176 gems$1,4752,269 gems12.88x2d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$114176 gems$1,4752,269 gems12.88x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$114176 gems$543835 gems4.74x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$114176 gems$543835 gems4.74x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$114176 gems$0.390.6 gems0.00x51m

Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$114176 gems$4.206.46 gems0.04x51m

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$114176 gems$2.073.18 gems0.02x51m

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$114176 gems$0.390.6 gems0.00x51m

UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$114176 gems$14.9422.99 gems0.13x51m

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$114176 gems$0.390.6 gems0.00x51m

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$114176 gems$0.390.6 gems0.00x9h

UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$114176 gems$14.9422.99 gems0.13x9h

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$114176 gems$0.390.6 gems0.00x9h

M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$114176 gems$75.67116 gems0.66x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$114	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.0%extraordinary 6.0%rare 3.0%classified 13.0%milspec 20.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $1,475 (12.88x)