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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$37.22

57.26 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $33.49 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

57.72%

470 openings, odds method

Variance

40.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 143

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

262 openings · below min

7 days

470 openings · below min

30 days

470 openings · below min

since tracking started

470 openings · below min

-0.5%64.0%128.5%

Small sample. 470 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	262	50.84%±77.1	—	odds
7d	470	57.72%±57.5	—	odds
30d	470	57.72%±57.5	—	odds
All	470	57.72%±57.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$4,810 7,400 gems	14.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$3,153 4,850 gems	23.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$1,324 2,037 gems	13.8%	3	1.7	1.78×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 182	$618 950 gems	10.1%	1	2.7	0.38×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 44	$150 230 gems	10.0%	8	10.8	0.74×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 33	$72.15 111 gems	6.5%	18	14.5	1.24×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$64.21 98.78 gems	5.8%	14	14.5	0.97×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$56.67 87.19 gems	5.1%	14	14.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$44.36 68.25 gems	9.9%	31	36.1	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	80.0%	$0.36 0.56 gems	0.9%	393	385.6	1.02×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.