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Fire or Fury

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$49.68
76.43 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.71 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.67%
909 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
72 openings · below min
7 days
96.04%±18.38745 openings
30 days
92.67%±16.64909 openings
since tracking started
92.67%±16.64909 openings
15.5%75.3%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h7275.22%±59.1—odds
7d74596.04%±18.4+0.6σodds
30d90992.67%±16.6+0.3σodds
All90992.67%±16.6+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 930 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified10.0%$426 656 gems95.3%9793.01.04×
MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff15.0%$5.23 8.04 gems1.8%123139.50.88×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted25.0%$4.12 6.34 gems2.3%221232.50.95×
CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue25.0%$0.98 1.51 gems0.5%243232.51.05×
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue25.0%$0.16 0.25 gems0.1%246232.51.06×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$49.6876.43 gems$5.238.04 gems0.11x
CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue$49.6876.43 gems$0.981.51 gems0.02x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedDaxo$49.6876.43 gems$4.126.34 gems0.08x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$49.6876.43 gems$4.126.34 gems0.08x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$49.6876.43 gems$4.126.34 gems0.08x
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue$49.6876.43 gems$0.160.25 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blues1gma$49.6876.43 gems$0.160.25 gems0.00x
CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue$49.6876.43 gems$0.981.51 gems0.02x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$49.6876.43 gems$4.126.34 gems0.08x
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueBoma$49.6876.43 gems$0.160.25 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$49.6890.00%5
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 10.0%#87c7ff 15.0%restricted 25.0%light blue 50.0%best hit —