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Fuzzy

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$107.98
166 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $97.18 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.82%
289 openings, odds method
Variance
11.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
54 openings · below min
7 days
99.40%±43.17231 openings
30 days
89.82%±38.59289 openings
since tracking started
89.82%±38.59289 openings
50.5%146.0%241.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h54151.62%±89.3—odds
7d23199.40%±43.2+0.4σodds
30d28989.82%±38.6−0.0σodds
All28989.82%±38.6−0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 301 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 400$4,340 6,678 gems11.2%10.8—
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 133$2,143 3,297 gems16.5%22.30.89×
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$1,578 2,427 gems16.2%33.01.00×
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$1,537 2,365 gems15.8%43.01.33×
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 33$430 662 gems13.3%89.00.89×
★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 33$315 485 gems9.7%69.00.66×
★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 33$190 292 gems5.9%49.00.44×
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20$82.65 127 gems4.3%815.10.53×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon15.0%$15.10 23.23 gems2.3%5445.11.20×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified15.0%$14.86 22.86 gems2.3%4445.10.97×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert20.0%$8.73 13.43 gems1.8%7460.21.23×
Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff33.0%$2.08 3.2 gems0.7%9399.30.94×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary$108166 gems$4,3406,678 gems40.20x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$108166 gems$2,1433,297 gems19.85x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$108166 gems$2,1433,297 gems19.85x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5782,427 gems14.61x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5782,427 gems14.61x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5782,427 gems14.61x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5372,365 gems14.24x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5372,365 gems14.24x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5372,365 gems14.24x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5372,365 gems14.24x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$108166 gems$2.083.2 gems0.02x
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare$108166 gems$82.65127 gems0.77x
Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$108166 gems$2.083.2 gems0.02x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$108166 gems$1,5782,427 gems14.61x
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$108166 gems$8.7313.43 gems0.08x
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonBolpyFR$108166 gems$15.1023.23 gems0.14x
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$108166 gems$15.1023.23 gems0.14x
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$108166 gems$8.7313.43 gems0.08x
Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$108166 gems$2.083.2 gems0.02x
Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$108166 gems$2.083.2 gems0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$10890.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.0%extraordinary 8.0%rare 5.0%uncommon 15.0%Classified 15.0%covert 20.0%#8847ff 33.0%best hit $4,340 (40.20x)