Gallery Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.11
4.78 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $2.79 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.93%
9,753 openings, odds method
Variance
55.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 51
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,789 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.11 | 89.93% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.1%epic 0.3%Covert 0.0%rare 1.4%uncommon 1.1%#d32ce6 1.1%#8847ff 3.2%violet 9.6%restricted 3.2%other 11.4%blue 22.8%milspec 34.3%#4b69ff 11.4%best hit $491 (158.1x)