Gemstones
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$108.04
166 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $97.24 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.22%
2,536 openings, odds method
Variance
82.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 152
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,635 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 303 | $12.6K 19,400 gems | 42.8% | 14 | 8.7 | 1.61× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 303 | $9,445 14,530 gems | 32.1% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 294 | $6,793 10,450 gems | 23.8% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.58 5.5 gems | 0.4% | 262 | 263.5 | 0.99× |
| SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $2.35 3.61 gems | 0.2% | 284 | 263.5 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet | 11.5% | $1.69 2.6 gems | 0.2% | 301 | 303.0 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue | 12.5% | $1.51 2.33 gems | 0.2% | 332 | 329.4 | 1.01× |
| P90 | Shallow Gravew (Field-Tested)weapon | 15.0% | $1.16 1.78 gems | 0.2% | 406 | 395.3 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $1.01 1.55 gems | 0.2% | 370 | 395.3 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1 | 25.0% | $0.25 0.38 gems | 0.1% | 652 | 658.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireDingus$108166 gems$12.6K19,400 gems116.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $108 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 25.0%covert 1.0%restricted 10.0%Uncommon 10.0%violet 11.5%blue 12.5%other 15.0%Mythical 15.0%best hit $12.6K (116.7x)