Get Clucked
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$114.22
176 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $102.80 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.31%
874 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 500 | $4,615 7,100 gems | 9.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| Pet Chicken | Silkie (Aqua With Yellow)other | 1 in 500 | $3,900 6,000 gems | 7.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| Chicken Eggother | 1 in 500 | $3,250 5,000 gems | 6.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $2,874 4,421 gems | 5.6% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,587 2,442 gems | 3.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $848 1,304 gems | 8.2% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $488 750 gems | 9.5% | 24 | 17.5 | 1.37× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $322 496 gems | 9.4% | 30 | 26.2 | 1.14× |
| AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $210 323 gems | 6.1% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $64.17 98.73 gems | 12.5% | 177 | 174.8 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 70.0% | $33.31 51.25 gems | 22.7% | 607 | 611.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $114 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.6%other 0.4%classified 73.0%best hit $3,900 (34.14x)