Ghost Protocol
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.32
25.1 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $14.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.96%
3,705 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,732 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $233 359 gems | 31.8% | 77 | 74.6 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $89.70 138 gems | 12.2% | 80 | 74.6 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $51.93 79.89 gems | 7.1% | 67 | 74.6 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $38.56 59.33 gems | 5.3% | 90 | 74.6 | 1.21× |
| P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $27.31 42.02 gems | 3.7% | 65 | 74.6 | 0.87× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $20.73 31.89 gems | 28.2% | 766 | 746.4 | 1.03× |
| Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon | 20.0% | $6.96 10.7 gems | 9.5% | 694 | 746.4 | 0.93× |
| Pet Chicken | Silkie (White)other | 50.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 2.2% | 1,893 | 1866.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.32 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%Ancient 2.0%red 2.0%mil spec 2.0%classified 20.0%uncommon 20.0%other 50.0%best hit —