Ghosts
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.87
5.95 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $3.48 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.99%
2,424 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,475 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $10.74 16.53 gems | 30.9% | 252 | 247.5 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $9.35 14.38 gems | 26.9% | 234 | 247.5 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $7.49 11.53 gems | 21.5% | 247 | 247.5 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.85 2.84 gems | 5.3% | 236 | 247.5 | 0.95× |
| Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.99 1.52 gems | 5.7% | 507 | 495.0 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.88 1.35 gems | 5.0% | 471 | 495.0 | 0.95× |
| SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 4.7% | 528 | 495.0 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.87 | 89.95% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 40.0%violet 20.0%best hit —