Gift Wrapped
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.85
75.15 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $43.96 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.31%
2,003 openings, odds method
Variance
39.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,090 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · baseWhitend$48.8575.15 gems$4,0666,255 gems83.24x
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · basekick.com/alynnushgambles$48.8575.15 gems$4,0666,255 gems83.24x
Latest dropsnewest first
Copenhagen 2024 Overpass Souvenir PackagecontainerFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$48.8575.15 gems$1.141.76 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $48.85 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed6 10.0%base 12.0%Souvenir 0.5%Base Grade 2.5%other 75.0%best hit $4,066 (83.24x)