Glock versus USP
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$55.04
84.67 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $49.53 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.80%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $547 841 gems | 55.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $125 192 gems | 25.2% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.90× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $40.69 62.6 gems | 8.2% | 16 | 12.2 | 1.31× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $28.85 44.38 gems | 5.8% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $14.63 22.51 gems | 3.0% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $7.66 11.79 gems | 1.5% | 14 | 12.2 | 1.15× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.14 4.83 gems | 0.6% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.26 1.94 gems | 0.3% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× |
| USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.1% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $0.18 0.27 gems | 0.1% | 14 | 18.3 | 0.77× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$55.0484.67 gems$28.8544.38 gems0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $55.04 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%rare 10.0%covert 20.0%restricted 20.0%Legendary 10.0%Mythical 10.0%industrial 10.0%Uncommon 15.0%best hit $547 (9.94x)