Gods vs Monsters
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$444.87
684 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $400.39 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.29%
157 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 157 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $3,139 4,830 gems | 70.6% | 20 | 14.1 | 1.42× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $924 1,422 gems | 20.8% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.06× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $169 260 gems | 3.8% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $113 174 gems | 2.5% | 10 | 14.1 | 0.71× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $27.98 43.04 gems | 0.6% | 13 | 14.1 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 11 | $26.00 40 gems | 0.6% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.06× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 19.0% | $20.31 31.25 gems | 1.0% | 28 | 29.8 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 27.0% | $1.99 3.06 gems | 0.1% | 44 | 42.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $445 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.0%classified 18.0%Ancient 9.0%industrial 19.0%restricted 27.0%best hit $3,139 (7.06x)